(ZeroHedge)—Beer sales over the July 4th holiday weekend came in stronger than previously expected, prompting distributors to raise their outlook for the remainder of the year and fueling renewed optimism around Constellation Brands (STZ). Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI) also posted a solid performance during the period, though one brand under its adult beverage umbrella remained a clear laggard. Unsurprisingly, it was Bud Light, still struggling to recover for reasons that need little explanation.
In the latest iteration of Goldman’s Beverage Bytes survey—covering 40 beer distributors and 125,000 retail outlets, or about 25% of all U.S. alcohol-selling locations—analysts led by Bonnie Herzog found that, although expectations were tempered heading into the holiday weekend due to soft scanner data, an uncertain macro environment, and weak Memorial Day trends, favorable summer weather trends across the Lower 48 during the July 4th holiday (which fell on a Friday) helped drive surprisingly strong beer demand.
Herzog said, “As a result, distributors are now incrementally more upbeat about the all-important summer selling season and their growth outlook for the category this year.”
About 60% of respondents said sales were up year-over-year, with STZ and ABI emerging as the top performers. Brands such as Modelo Especial, Pacifico, and Sun Cruiser saw solid momentum, though Corona Extra continued to underperform.
Here are the notable takeaways from the report:
- The promotional environment appeared broadly rational over the 4th of July holiday weekend – as 53% of beer volumes were promoted (in-line with last year) – though ABI was the clear standout in terms of promotional intensity;
- Most distributors indicated that beer category sales accelerated in Q2 vs Q1 – citing improved weather trends and strength for Mich Ultra and Busch Light (among others);
- Most distributors expect the second half of the year to be stronger vs the first half – with distributors now expecting category growth declines this year of only -1.0% (vs -1.9% expected in our Memorial Day survey);
- Volume trends for Modelo Especial & Pacifico were also quite strong over the holiday weekend – something the majority of distributors indicated – however, Corona Extra remains under some pressure; and
- Sun Cruiser remains a standout – and the majority of distributors indicated that volumes were up for the brand over the 4th of July holiday weekend vs last year. However, distributors highlighted the spending on Sun Cruiser is unsustainable and some raised concerns that the category is becoming saturated.
There was a lot to unpack in the holiday volume trends…
Topline Results:
- Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI) led all manufacturers, with 52% of distributors reporting higher volumes vs last year—followed by Constellation Brands (STZ) at 33% and Boston Beer (SAM) at 18%.
- Overall beer category performance improved: 40% of distributors reported year-over-year volume gains for July 4th (vs 20% on Memorial Day); 37% still saw declines.
- Hard seltzers remained weak: 64% of distributors reported volume declines, though this was a slight improvement from Memorial Day (70%).
By brand, Herzog noted twice that Bud Light “continues to struggle” and “remains pressured following the Bud Light controversy,” more than two years after the brewer’s woke marketing team—aiming to score DEI points—hired Dylan Mulvaney, a biological male acting as a woman, for what became one of the worst ad promotions ever in corproate America.
Refresher: This is who nuked the brand.
Brand highlights over the holiday weekend:
ABI (Anheuser-Busch InBev):
- Strongest performer overall.
- Michelob Ultra was a standout, with 93% of distributors seeing y/y gains (56% significantly).
- Bud Light remains a drag—74% reported lower volumes; marketing support remains weak.
Constellation Brands (STZ):
- Strong holiday weekend performance.
- Pacifico led, with 65% of distributors seeing gains.
- Modelo Especial also performed well (52% up), while Corona Extra continues to face challenges (47% down).
Molson Coors (TAP):
- Mixed performance.
- Coors Banquet was a bright spot (73% up).
- Coors Light and Miller Lite both underperformed, with 74% and 78% of distributors, respectively, reporting y/y declines.
Heineken (HEIN):
- Weak showing, with only 14% reporting growth and 46% noting volume declines.
Boston Beer (SAM):
- Modest improvement; Sun Cruiser stood out, with 72% of distributors reporting growth (44% significantly).
- Twisted Tea and Truly showed signs of pressure, with 35% and 76% of distributors respectively reporting declines.
Hard Seltzer Category:
- Remains under pressure. White Claw: 31% up, 41% down.
- High Noon: 40% up, 40% down slightly.
Our takeaway: Bud Light’s struggles continue. Someone ought to write a white paper on why woke marketing nukes brands. Remember Jaguar earlier this year? These marketing teams lined with liberal college elites are completely out of touch with how the real world operates, and oblivious to the fact that the Overton Window has shifted to the center-right. Woke is over (for now).
The Biggest Threat to Your Retirement Is Actually a Very Good Thing
When you look at the headlines today, you’ll see experts in the retirement industry warning about big threats to your financial security:
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The Retirement Equation Has Changed
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